Enhancing the effectiveness of research to assist international climate change policy development

A brief explanation

This Project, here we are just presenting the chapter A2 about Brazil findings, was jointly funded by the Dutch and US governments and conducted by Science & Policy Associates, Inc. (US), the Free University Institute for Environmental Studies, and Klabers Management and Policy Consultancy (NE).

This project was accomplished through extensive interviews in São Paulo, Brasília and Rio de Janeiro and the views here expressed represent an interesting sample of what Brazilians think about the climate change issues.

Brazil is characterized by regional differences in economics, environmental pollution, and the level to which basic socio-economic and environmental needs are met. These differences were reflected in the responses of interviewees in São Paulo, Brasilia, and Rio de Janeiro. The São Paulo participants expressed optimism toward the technological potential of their region and the opportunities for addressing climate change by implementing cleaner technologies. Beyond the regional differences, all the people interviewed showed individual outlooks on the problem and its solutions, resulting in a diverse picture of the views of Brazil's communities of interest toward climate change.

Despite the differences, there appear to be some basic themes on which Brazilians have reached national consensus. While Brazil is one of the biggest countries in the world with tremendous resources and potential, its economy is still developing. There are basic needs to be addressed, such as poverty, employment, education, and severe local environmental problems, which do not automatically coincide with the aims and objectives of the Climate Convention. Brazilians, while aware of the dangers of deforestation, seem to be disappointed in the attitude of the industrialized world. They see the North as the cause of the climate problem and are defensive about efforts to blame and judge Brazil. From a Brazilian point of view, industrialized countries emphasize Brazil's negative environmental activities, while overlooking the positive developments.

Business representatives interviewed understand, despite scientific uncertainties, that energy and resource efficiency must be improved to address climate change. In their opinion, it is important to find alternative fuels in order to increase international competitiveness. This will result in emission reductions. The business community prefers market oriented-instruments, particularly those introduced internationally. Government, academic, and environmental-NGO representatives in Brazil also support the introduction and implementation of global market and financial instruments.

Government interviewees tend to recognize the climate change issue but are forced to focus on immediate needs and, therefore, tend to postpone addressing the problem. They stress the need for educating the public to create pressure to addressing the climate change issue. They also argue for enhanced scientific information, particularly on climate change impacts. Interviewees from environmental NGOs and academic communities tended to question more underlying development patterns that constrain efforts to link environment and development.

PERCEPTIONS OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE

Perceptions

Most interviewees from all sectors were aware of Brazil's potential contributions to and impacts from climate change. Sources of emissions mentioned included traffic and the burning of forests and of sugar cane fields. El Niño weather patterns and droughts in the Aridas region were mentioned as examples of climate change effects. These interviewees are generally well aware that deforestation may exacerbate climate change and affect the international prestige of Brazil. Some pointed out, however, that Brazil is addressing this issue and that, with anticipated industrialization, their CO2 emissions from fossil fuels may surpass the contribution of forest burning to climate change. In addition, an interviewee from the government stated that the condition of Brazil's coastal zone is of key importance for the nation. From the coastal zone perspective Brazil must take global climate change into account in all decisions.

On the other hand, some individuals from various sectors expressed the view that climate change is not a major problem for Brazil, and that Brazil's contribution to climate change is small. Moreover, Brazil has taken strides to convert to renewable energy sources such as ethanol and hydro-electric power, lowering their emission rates. For some of these interviewees, particularly in the academic community, Brazil is not a source, but a significant sink of CO2. These interviewees also felt that Brazil will not be a major emitter of greenhouse gases in the future because fossil fuels account for a very small part of the country’s energy use. One interviewee stated that Brazil is unique because of its low emissions for the level of industrialization of the country; geography has offered hydro options for energy production; gross deforestation is being ameliorated because of regrowth; the Amazon fuel question is being solved by policy for development that is sustainable; and Brazil is spending $1 billion to monitor and protect the Amazonia region.

When asked their opinion on the government's role in addressing the climate change issue, however, the interviewees were more critical. Some interviewees felt that the Brazilian government is neither prepared nor willing to take action on climate change, and that the government takes a defensive position due to the Amazon deforestation issue. The 1992 U.N. Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio, according to a former government official, was used as an opportunity to enhance Brazil's image, which suffered from perceptions of burning Amazonian forests. It is the Brazilian Ministry for External Affairs, not the Ministry for Environment, that determines climate change policy. Moreover, the attention generally given to the issue is very low.

Most interviewees agreed that the Brazilian public is not well informed about the climate change issue. The Brazilian people pressure the government to address present concerns such as poverty, inflation, unemployment, and local pollution, rather than long-term issues like climate change. Poorer Brazilians are not well informed on issues related to climate and sustainable development because they live day to day at a subsidence level. Brazil is a very stratified society.

On the other hand, several interviewees feel that public awareness of environmental problems is maintained through the media. Some interviewees from Sao Paulo considered their region as more educated, and more aware and motivated for addressing environmental issues than people elsewhere in Brazil. Even those aware of the issue may not give it priority over national interest, given budgetary limitations.

Several interviewees felt that the only thing that might increase awareness of climate change within Brazil would be a catastrophic event. Others feel that the scientific community can raise the awareness of the general public and government officials as to climate change and its economic impacts. According to most interviewees, direct impacts must be demonstrated, so research on local disasters, such as floods and drought, is necessary.

Sustainability

A few interviewees expressed the view that sustainable development is not a major issue in Brazil, in part because of their clean energy sources. Most, however, feel that climate change should be addressed in the context of sustainable development. The environmental-NGO and business and industry-NGO communities saw this link as necessary for people to pay attention to the climate change issue. In addition, all interviewees mentioned the importance of the link between forest and sustainable development. Forests provide CO2 sinks, materials, and biodiversity, dl of which are beneficial to Brazil and the world.

On the other hand, suggestions from the industrialized world, such as, green labelling and other environmental policy options that fall under the sustainable development concept, are seen by some Brazilians as possibly being driven by the North's imperialistic or protectionist intents. Before these options are accepted by Brazilians, they must be demonstrated as beneficial to them.

Awareness Among Sectors

Industry and agriculture are becoming more aware of the climate issue, according to some interviewees. People in these sectors are confronted with diminishing water resources with impacts on hydro power and drinking water. They questions whether these occurrences are incidental weather anomalies or the result of climate change. The sugar industry characterizes itself as environment-friendly, because sugar is considered a renewable energy source. This is not typical, however, of Brazilian industry in general.

Other sectors mentioned as becoming more aware of climate change are natural gas, pulp and paper, and the chemical industry, which was effected by the Montreal Protocol. These sectors see economic opportunities for enhancing competitiveness. Some industries such as auto, steel, and oil, view climate change as a threat.

National Involvement and Impact

In general, the interviewees were of the opinion that Brazil has addressed the climate change issue more effectively than other countries in Latin America. Some referred to Brazil's emphasis on renewables in energy policies as an example. When compared to industrialized nations, however, there was consensus that Brazil is lagging behind. All interviewees expected that Brazil's involvement in the future would increase in some way, primarily driven by international cooperation and pressure.

LINKAGES AND WIN-WIN SCENARIOS

Several interviewees cited a failure within Brazil to adequately link climate change to other issues. This is true of other global issues, such as sustainable development, and of issues of national concern, such as pollution. Nevertheless. many linkages were suggested that are either already made or could be made in the near future. These linkages include:

Sustainable development patterns; Local air pollution; Fuel efficiency for cars and other uses; Burning of forests and sugar cane fields; Water supply and the potential for drought and floods; Problems related to energy supply; Industrial modernization to improve efficiency; CFC reduction; Pollution and waste controls; Technology policy to address growth and emissions comprehensively; population policy; and Biodiversity and ecosystem function.

CONSTRAINTS AND DILEMMAS

All interviewees agreed that the primary policy goals in Brazil are economic development and to increase the international competitiveness of firms. A per capita income increase would inevitably lead to an increase in emissions, at least temporarily. The challenge for Brazil is to maximize growth while minimizing environmental degradation. The specific constraints and dilemmas facing decision makers in their efforts to address climate change mentioned by the Brazilian interviewees are listed below.

Lack of capital; Lack of education; Crisis and instability; Dismantling of the public sector as a result of budget cuts;

Choice for energy sources between fossil fuels and biomass; Trend toward domestic auto production without examining energy efficiency; Ambiguity of indicators; Involvement of newly industrializing country scientists in international meetings without building their capacity to contribute substantively; Lack of science-policy dialogue; Lack of dialogue between scientific disciplines; Lack of enforcement of environmental laws and regulations; Controversial nature of climate change issue; Outdated constitution; Regional variation within the country; Latin cultural tendencies to focus on the short term and resist change; Stagnation of international initiatives to address climate change; and Roadblocks to technology transfer, such as funding and proprietary concerns.

POLICY OPTIONS AND RESEARCH NEEDS

Policy Options

The Brazilian interviewees suggested a number of options for addressing the global climate change issue. Several interviewees mentioned that short-term options are not really available because of recent period of economic and political chaos in Brazil. This is coupled with the opinion of many interviewees that Brazil does not tend to plan in the long term. Despite this, the following options were mentioned:

Link environment and development goals; Development of technology in the energy sector to enhance efficiency and the use of low emission fuels; Price energy to reflect externalities and encourage conservation; Develop industrial energy efficiency standards; Address urban air pollution by reducing auto emissions; Utilize natural gas in transportation; Coordinate investments to take advantage of available technology; Focus on cost-cutting, no-regrets approaches like recycling wastes to avoid resistance from industry; Introduce economic, financial, and market instruments; Stabilize internal population; Import natural gas from Argentina and Bolivia; Develop more efficient agricultural practices; Disseminate knowledge and increase public awareness of the climate change issue: Encourage formal contracts and other cooperation between government and industry to encourage energy efficiency and other goals; Define new instruments and indicators to address sustainability;

Develop a reliable index for quality of life that the public will trust and understand; Improve the quality of products that can be extracted from forests without destruction; Take advantage of Brazil's carbon sink capacity in the international negotiating process; Enhance communication between the industrialized and developing worlds; Develop joint implementation projects; Develop international targets and time tables for emission reduction; Introduce an emission penalty for CO2 in world trade; Invoke science to inform burden-sharing issues; Break out international negotiations into groups with similar situations so that major emitters can reach a stance before other countries are brought in; Take offensive positions in international negotiations; and Utilize Brazil's scientific capacity to contribute internationally.

Research Needs

Many interviewees support enhanced research and education strategies, a long with institution building in the field of the science-policy interface. There were different opinions about the specific contribution science can deliver. Many interviewees see science as important in developing consensus between government and industry. Some interviewees were skeptical about the contribution of science to climate change policy making. They said that policy decisions are primarily driven by socio-economic factors and that research merely frames the debate.

Several interviewees supported buildin2 institutions for research collaboration between industrialized and newly industrializing countries. Others cited a need for more inter-disciplinary research and communication to provide new perspectives and avoid duplication of efforts.

The interviewees cited a number of specific research needs to effectively inform decision making on climate change. Examples of topics on which research should focus are:

Long-term development options in relation to the climate system; Emission inventories; Local and regional climate scenarios; Adaptation technologies; Energy efficiency, bio-gas in turbines, and biotechnology; Biological and social impacts of global warming on Amazonia and large plantations; Mechanisms for more efficient steering of societal behavior; Developing a quality of life index; Develop indicators to help select policy options; Quantification of social and natural externalities of climate change; Cost/benefit analysis of climate impacts to identify winners and losers; indications for forest cover;

Alternative uses of forest; New social and cultural lifestyles; Agricultural strategies and processes; Social factors such as land reform and political stability; and Adaptation methods.